NOAA Coral Reef Watch Experimental Global Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook Product (CFS-based)

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Frequently anticipated questions:


What does this data set describe?

Title:
NOAA Coral Reef Watch Experimental Global Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook Product (CFS-based)
Abstract:
The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) experimental global Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook product at 1x1 degree spatial resolution described here is based on sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts generated by an operational, dynamical, fully coupled ocean-land-atmosphere seasonal climate forecast model, the NOAA/National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2. The CFS-based Outlook significantly enhances CRW's capability for predicting the likelihood of coral bleaching up to four months (typical length of a bleaching season) into the future. With four CFS forecast runs per day, with lead-time up to 9 months into the future, CRW is able to produce a probabilistic Seasonal Outlook with 28 ensemble members at the weekly time scale. Currently on the Outlook product's webpage, CRW displays the CFS-based Seasonal Outlook at probabilities of 90% and 60%, thereby identifying the lowest thermal stress levels that 90% and 60% of the 28 ensemble members predict, respectively. Also displayed are four images of the percentages of the 28 ensemble members reaching each of the four coral bleaching thermal stress levels (Bleaching Watch & Higher, Bleaching Warning & Higher, Alert Level 1 & Higher, and Alert Level 2). The corresponding weekly outlooks that the Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook is derived from are also provided to show development of potential thermal stress conditions on the weekly basis. This Seasonal Outlook is updated weekly, currently every Tuesday (U.S. Eastern Time). The first version of CRW's CFS-based Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook prodcut, based on SST forecasts from CFS Version 1, was released to the public in July 2012. In December 2012, the second version of the CFS-based Outlook was released, by upgrading the system to use SST forecasts from the operational CFS Version 2 (CFSv2), which replaced CFSv1. In a normal year, the Outlook forecasts no potential for bleaching. When the forecasted SST exceeds bleaching thresholds over a long enough period to cause bleaching, however, the Outlook maps display the bleaching potential. Actual conditions may vary due to model uncertainty, subsequent changes in climatic conditions, extreme localized variability, or weather patterns. This effort is made possible through collaboration between NCEP and CRW, supported by funding from NCEP and the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program.
Supplemental_Information:
The entire suite of products mentioned in this metadata file is accessible at: <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite>
  1. How should this data set be cited?

    NOAA Coral Reef Watch program, 20130101, NOAA Coral Reef Watch Experimental Global Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook Product (CFS-based): NOAA Coral Reef Watch program, College Park, Maryland, USA.

    Online Links:

  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?

    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -180
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: 180
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 64.0
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: -74.0

  3. What does it look like?

    <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/current_images_v1/cur_img_ss_outlook_cfs_rank03_45ns.gif> (GIF)
    This is the most recent image of the NOAA CRW Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook at 90% Probability.
    <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/current_images_v1/cur_img_ss_outlook_cfs_rank12_45ns.gif> (GIF)
    This is the most recent image of the NOAA CRW Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook at 60% Probability.
    <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/current_images_v1/cur_img_ss_alertlevel2_outlookprob_cfs_45ns.gif> (GIF)
    This is the most recent image of the NOAA CRW Probabilistic Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook for Alert Level 2.
    <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/current_images_v1/cur_img_ss_alertlevel1_outlookprob_cfs_45ns.gif> (GIF)
    This is the most recent image of the NOAA CRW Probabilistic Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook for Alert Level 1 and Higher.
    <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/current_images_v1/cur_img_ss_warning_outlookprob_cfs_45ns.gif> (GIF)
    This is the most recent image of the NOAA CRW Probabilistic Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook for Bleaching Warning and Higher.
    <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/current_images_v1/cur_img_ss_watch_outlookprob_cfs_45ns.gif> (GIF)
    This is the most recent image of the NOAA CRW Probabilistic Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook for Bleaching Watch and Higher.

  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?

    Beginning_Date: 01-Jan-2013
    Ending_Date: Present
    Currentness_Reference: Ground Condition

  5. What is the general form of this data set?

    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: map, webpage

  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?

    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?

      This is a Raster data set. It contains the following raster data types:

      • Dimensions 138 x 360, type Grid Cell

    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?

      Horizontal positions are specified in geographic coordinates, that is, latitude and longitude. Latitudes are given to the nearest 1.0. Longitudes are given to the nearest 1.0. Latitude and longitude values are specified in Decimal degrees.

  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?

    Grid Intersection
    There are 360 grid intersections in each row (at a pre-defined latitude) and 138 grid intersections in each column (at a pre-defined longitude). Each grid is 1.0 degree latitude by 1.0 degree longitude in size, centered at latitudes from 74 degrees South, northward to 64 degrees North, and at longitudes from 0 degrees eastward to 360.0 degrees. (Source: <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.php>)

    Global Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook images in GIF format
    These are the image display of original global Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook data. (Source: <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/outlook_cfs.php>)

    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:255
    Units:Index color values


Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)

  2. Who also contributed to the data set?

  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?

    NOAA Coral Reef Watch program
    Attn: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Coordinator
    NOAA, E/RA3, Room 3222, 5830 University Research Court
    College Park, Maryland 20740
    USA

    301-683-3320 (voice)
    301-683-3301 (FAX)
    coralreefwatch@noaa.gov


Why was the data set created?

The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) mission is to utilize remote sensing, modeled, and in situ tools for near-real-time and long term monitoring, modeling and reporting of physical environmental conditions of coral reef ecosystems. A suite of monitoring and prediction products, including this product, has been developed by CRW as a decision support system (DSS) to provide critical and timely coral reef environment information to the U.S. and international coral reef communities.


How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?

    NOAA CFSv2 (source 1 of 1)
    NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, 20110301, NOAA Climate Forecast System Version 2: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, Maryland, USA.

    Type_of_Source_Media: data file
    Source_Contribution:
    CRW's current CFS-based global Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook product is derived from the sea surface layer temperature prediction of NCEP's Climate Forecast System Version 2.

  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?

    Date: Not complete (process 1 of 1)
    The level of predicted coral bleaching thermal stress at a model grid presented in the Outlook product is determined by the values of predicted Degree Heating Weeks and Coral Bleaching HotSpots at that grid. For a predicted date, the daily Degree Heating Weeks prediction is calculated as the accumulation of predicted and observed (if needed) Coral Bleaching HotSpots over 12 consecutive weeks up to the predicted date. At each grid, for a specific lead time, a coral bleaching sea surface layer temperature threshold value derived from the CFS Version 2 hindcast is subtracted from the sea suface layer temperature prediction to produce the Coral Bleaching HotSpots prediction. If observed HotSpot values are needed, they are produced using the same algorithm, but based on the Version 2 Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST), including the threshold based on OISST Version 2 of early years. See the CRW web site at: <http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php> and Eakin et al. (2012) above for additional details.

    Person who carried out this activity:

    NOAA Coral Reef Watch program
    Attn: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Coordinator
    NOAA, E/RA3, Room 3222, 5830 University Research Court
    College Park, Maryland 20740
    USA

    301-683-3320 (voice)
    301-683-3301 (FAX)
    coralreefwatch@noaa.gov

    Data sources used in this process:
    • NOAA CFSv2

  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?


How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?

    The accuracy of CRW's CFS-based Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook depends on the accuracy of the sea surface layer temperature prediction produced by NOAA/NCEP's operational Climate Forecast System (CFS), currently Version 2, and the accuracy of CRW's algorithm for predicting Coral Bleaching HotSpots and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW). More detailed descriptions of NCEP's CFS and CRW's CFS-based Outlook product are provided in the following two articles, respectively: 1) Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, David Behringer, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Mark Iredell, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, Malaquías Peña Mendez, Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Emily Becker (2013). The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Clim., e-View, doi: <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1>, <http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1>; and 2) Eakin CM, Liu G, Chen M, Kumar A (2012) Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast System. Proc 12th Int Coral Reef Sym, ICRS2012_10A_1, <http://www.icrs2012.com/proceedings/manuscripts/ICRS2012_10A_1.pdf>.

  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?

    Users are referred to the following article for horizontal positional accuracy: Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, David Behringer, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Mark Iredell, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, Malaquías Peña Mendez, Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Emily Becker (2013). The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Clim., e-View, doi: <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1>, <http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1>.

  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?

    none

  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?

    There is no spatial data gap existing in this data set. No change will be made to the original Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook data, but occasional revisions to some images may occur if an inaccuracy is detected in the data image display. New Outlook images will be produced continuously at scheduled weekly update times. As an experimental product, this Outlook will be evaluated continuously and improved versions may replace older versions over time with corresponding announcements.

  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?

    none


How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?

Access_Constraints: none
Use_Constraints:
Not intended for legal use. Data contain prediction uncertainty.

  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)

    NOAA Coral Reef Watch program
    Attn: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Coordinator
    NOAA, E/RA3, Room 3222, 5830 University Research Court
    College Park, Maryland 20740
    USA

    301-683-3320 (voice)
    301-683-3301 (FAX)
    coralreefwatch@noaa.gov

  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set?

    Downloadable Data

  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?

    NOAA makes no warranty regarding these data, expressed or implied, nor does the fact of distribution constitute such a warranty. NOAA cannot assume liability for any damages caused by any errors or omissions in these data, nor as a result of the failure of these data to function on a particular system.

  4. How can I download or order the data?


Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 18-Dec-2013
Metadata author:
NOAA Coral Reef Watch program
Attn: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Coordinator
NOAA, E/RA3, Room 3222, 5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
USA

301-683-3320 (voice)
301-683-3301 (FAX)
coralreefwatch@noaa.gov

Metadata standard:
FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)


Generated by mp version 2.9.13 on Fri Oct 31 10:41:34 2014