Mariska Weijerman

2015

Need & Problems addressed: There is little question that declining integrity of coral reef ecosystems around Guam is eroding the ability of these systems to provide the goods and services that humans rely on. It is less clear what to do to reverse this trend. In recent years, calls for the implementation of new approaches to marine resource management, such as, networks of marine protected areas (MPAs), marine spatial planning and zoning schemes or systematic overhaul of governance structures have increased. Guam participates in the Micronesian Challenge with a goal to set aside 30% of the coast as marine reserves. Guam also has to alleviate potential stressors from the military build-up and decide where they can mitigate degradation of coral habitat and associated fisheries. Simulating the existing environmental conditions and comparing the results of the status quo with alternative management scenarios facilitates review and evaluation of the effectiveness of present rules and regulations governing coral reef fishery and conservation around Guam. In July 2014, Mariska Weijerman went to Guam to meet with local marine resource managers and biologists at the University of Guam to discuss the progress on model development and its possible application with the completed Guam Atlantis model. Resource managers identified management scenarios that they would like to see implemented in Atlantis in order to visualize the socio-economic and ecological tradeoffs compared to the status quo. During a recent public hearing (June 2014) comments were made of opening up the established MPAs and substitute spatial fishery regulation with size or bag limits. Being able to compare the predicted results of model runs of those scenarios would greatly benefit the local managers in their decision; hence we want to explore these scenarios as accurate as possible. At present watershed restoration projects are being implemented in the southern tip of Guam (Manell-Geus watershed) and this area is the new NOAA Habitat Focus Area. Already, there is interest by communities to expand this watershed restoration to the northwest. Implementing this scenario through Atlantis runs will greatly enhance understanding of the potential ecological benefits of expanding the watershed restoration project. Objectives: (1) Develop a circulation model of available data sets; (2) Develop the logic of a Bayesian Network Model on the participation of important economic (dive tourists) and social-cultural (fishers) reef users; (3) combine the separate submodels into the Guam Atlantis model and evaluate 3 management options identified by local resource managers: 1. watershed restoration; 2a. size and 2b. bag limit for reef-fish landings; 3. Status Quo. These analyses integrate the indirect effects on species and functional groups, primarily through predator–prey linkages and effects of habitat quality. They will also integrate direct and indirect effects from ocean acidification and warming. Affiliated projects: NOAA’s Pacific Islands Habitat Blueprint Regional Initiative. Project partners: Guam Coastal Management Program, Guam Division of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources, NOAA NWFSC, PIRO, West Pacific Regional Fisheries Council, CSIRO.

The main outcome of Guam Atlantis will be an assessment of the socio-ecological tradeoffs of alternative management options and the cumulative effects of global environmental change on the 0-30 m coral reef ecosystem of Guam. By simulating management scenarios, managers can evaluate the socio-economic and ecological tradeoffs of each identified scenario. Because of the whole-of-ecosystem approach, Guam Atlantis can improve our understanding of the interactions and vulnerabilities between human coastal communities and coral reef ecosystems and simulate the effects of proposed management strategies. This structure of testing manager’s strategy suggestions has been used in the restructuring of the Southeast Australian Fisheries (Fulton et al. 2007, CSIRO report) and in NOAA’s Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the California Current (http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/assets/25/7772_07122011_125959_CalCurrentIEATM109WebFinal.pdf). Additionally, we will develop the logic for a Bayesian Network model of the drivers of human fishing behavior and their activity that we will couple to the biophysical Atlantis model. Using an ecosystem-based approach to evaluate different management strategies requires intimate knowledge of the biophysical systems as well as the social-economic systems. The importance of understanding the drivers of human behavior in the context of ecosystem modelling is now well recognized as it is only in the human domain that levers of change can be identified by which sustainable use can be achieved. This integrated modelling is particularly interesting but difficult in places where much of the interaction with the marine environment is not commercial but rather driven by traditional or recreational reasons. Economic behavioral drivers, by which most commercial fisher interactions can be modelled quantitatively, such as profit maximization, are relatively well researched. However, the same quantitative modelling focus has not been applied to integrating social and cultural behavioral drivers into biological or ecosystem models. Establishing the logics will be the first step towards that approach.

• Guam

Other Domestic or Global Project

Completed

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