Gareth Williams; Jeffrey Maynard

Human and natural drivers of coral reef resilience to climate-induced coral bleaching in Guam; identifying potential climate refugia

2019

SymbioSeas

"This project involved collaboratively working with resource managers in Guam to achieve these two outcomes: 1) increase our knowledge of the human and natural drivers of coral reef resilience to climate-induced coral bleaching in Guam, and 2) guide management planning and decision-making to promote reef recovery. The overarching project goal was to identify and explain patterns in reef resilience in Guam and then identify refugia that represent conservation and management priorities. This was achieved through innovative approaches that combine novel spatial and statistical modeling. The specific project objectives are listed below. The first 6 objectives are presented in the order in which our team progressed through the planned work. The 7th objective is cross-cutting and took place throughout the project (and is ongoing) as we collaborate with manager colleagues and share results with community members. Objective 1 - Quantify baseline reef condition in Guam prior to the 2013/2014 bleaching event. Objective 2 - Quantify spatial patterns in bleaching prevalence and benthic change between preand post-bleaching years. Objective 3 - Quantify spatial patterns in anthropogenic stress that are stress-reinforcing factorsthat contribute to reef decline under the threat of climate change. Objective 4 - Quantify spatial patterns in upwelling, which is a stress-mitigating factor that supports resilience to climate change. Objective 5 - Develop statistical models that compare and evaluate predictors of reef change in Guam under climate change. Objective 6 - Identify potential reef refugia, bright spots where management investment may reap the greatest returns in long-term provision of ecosystem goods and services. Objective 7 - Communicate with the scientific and management community and community members in Guam to share project results and identify pathways to action, and ensure project methods and results are formally published with open access."

coral reef, resilience, Guam, resilience-based management, coral bleaching, coral conservation

NOS

OCM

FY2019 CRCP Project ID 31209; Project Title: FY18 - Domestic Coral Reef Conservation Grants; Principal Investigator: Liz Fairey; Grant NA18NOS4820106.

NA18NOS4820106