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Description:
Project Manager:
Ian Enochs
Project Years:
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Project Summary:
Background:Due to large losses in coral cover over the past 40 years, coupled with increasing erosion rates, most Caribbean coral reefs are in accretionary stasis or are net erosional. Over time, the complex three-dimensional habitat that forms healthy reef ecosystems will be lost, as it dissolves and erodes into sand. This is especially concerning because this structure is critical to ecosystem function and is responsible for the numerous ecosystem services that reefs provide. It shelters our shorelines and coastal infrastructure from storms and waves, provides homes for biodiverse invertebrate and fish communities, and in turn support food, fishing, and tourism. The loss of this structural habitat will therefore have profound ecological and economic consequences.We know that reef framework habitat is inexorably linked to warming and ocean acidification. Habitat-building corals will succumb to bleaching events, and those that are able to persist will calcify slower. At the same time, bioeroders will increase in prevalence and erosion rates will accelerate, tipping the balance towards dissolution and habitat loss. However, the progression of these processes, and the severity of potential habitat loss is site-specific and addressable with proper management. Managers are in need of tools that evaluate climate risk and translate actions into ecosystem-scale impacts, with direct implications for ecosystem services.The Reef Budget approach (Perry et al. 2012) involves the summation of all processes influencing reef carbonate, and the calculation of a single metric describing the persistence of habit, the mass of habitat alteration per unit area, per year. This approach was applied to the Florida Reef Tract (Morris et al. 2022), where it highlighted their tenuous state and the need for habitat-driven management. Kennedy et al. (2013) showed how these models could be linked to environmental change, setting the theoretical framework for a tool to evaluate climate and management impacts in tandem. With support from CRCP, Webb et al. (2023) successfully applied this approach to the data-rich Cheeca Rocks, and showed how coral outplanting targets would impact habitat production under different climate scenarios. An accompanying web-based tool for managers is in production and on track to be developed in FY23. Objectives and approach:The objective of this project is to operationalize the Reef Persistence Evaluator, to apply, expand, and refine the tool so that it can inform US coral reef management at priority sites, and at scale. To do this we will accomplish the following objectives:Identify priority reefs in the Keys, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands and Gulf of Mexico (Flower Garden Banks), and engage with the managers that oversee these reefs to identify relevant management actions (e.g., coral outplanting targets, herbivore introduction, seagrass planting) in need of evaluation at each site. Conduct downscaled climate forecasts (acidification, warming, sea level rise) for priority sites using the latest models and projections.Leverage three-dimensional benthic datasets created from structure from motion (SFM) technology in collaboration with co-manager S. Viehmann at NCCOS and team member H. Barkley at PIFSC, to provide high-coverage species composition data and rugosity metrics.Collect site-specific data that contributes to the accuracy of model projections such as calcification rates, stressor responses of priority species, parrotfish and urchin abundances. This will occur in a highly leveraged manner. For example, we will be able to leverage OA-response data collected from OAP-funded Caribbean reef species evaluation, and nutrient response data funded through FDEP, as well as benthic, fish, and invertebrate data collected as part of NCRMP, and applicable territorial monitoring projects.With input from managers, refine the Reef Persistence Evaluator tool to provide applicable information with a user-friendly, graphics-rich interface.Application to management:This project will be conducted with management, for management. Expansion and application of the tool will follow at priority sites, starting with existing data in the Keys and then expanding to five sites per year in other jurisdictions. Like the sites, scenarios will be relevant to management priorities/targets.Project integration and leverage:This project coordinates closely with CRCP LOI 31470, led by team member Barkley. Barkley et al. have developed state of the art techniques for incorporating SFM data into carbonate budget assessments. While these data have been from the Pacific, leveraging their technology and evaluation will contribute to the success and accelerated timeline of this project. Similarly, we will provide support on the underlying methodological underpinnings of predictive carbonate budget modeling conducted by Webb et al. (2023). These efforts thereby represents a multi-FMC, multi-LO collaboration towards reef management.
Expected Outcome:
The expected outcome of this project is a tool for managers to evaluate the impacts of climate and restoration scenarios on priority reef sites across US jurisdictions in the Caribbean and Atlantic. We expect that this tool will be adopted by the management community in these areas to investigate the impacts of restoration and management actions on habitat persistence.
Project Locations:
- Florida
- Gulf of Mexico
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico
Project Category:
Climate Change
Project Status:
Ongoing
Associated Products:
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