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Description:
Project Manager:
Geoffrey Cook
Project Years:
2015
2016
2017
Project Summary:
THE ISSUE: Corals continue to undergo precipitous declines in population size. Seven Caribbean coral species have been listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), NOAA is required to monitor population status and trends throughout these species' range, and local managers face a new landscape of regulatory requirements. The National Coral Reef Monitoring Program (NCRMP) has started collecting data that will eventually help evaluate these corals and comply with these regulations. However managers need tools now to (1) anticipate the rates at which these populations are dwindling, (2) evaluate the effects of climate change and active management scenarios on these species' local populations, and (3) comply with new regulations. THE SOLUTION: We propose to address these needs by developing size based matrix population models for Orbicella faveolata and O. annularis (originally proposed for early FY15). Contingent on data availability and quality, we will model O. franksi, Acropora palmata, A. cervicornis, Dendrogyra cylindrus, and/or Mycetophyllia ferox in year two of this project. Population models will provide managers with estimates of future population size and predictions of extinction risk for individual species. Population models also provide a platform for scientists and managers to discuss active management scenarios (e.g. outplanting of young corals, removal of corallivores) and climate change scenarios (e.g. mortality caused by more frequent bleaching events) that are likely to effect the populations in question. Together with managers we can simulate realistic scenarios, examine the predicted results of those scenarios on the populations of threatened corals, and create a plan of action for conservation and/or restoration. THE DATA: Perfect data for coral population modeling requires tracking hundreds of individual coral colonies in several locations throughout each species' range for several decades. In the future NCRMP data will be useful for this endeavor, but this data set is in its infancy. In the absence of perfect data, shorter-duration time series from a set of locations can be substituted. Dr. Marilyn Brandt (University of the Virgin Islands) has such data in the U.S. Virgin Islands. This data set is ideal for population modeling as individual corals have been tracked over time, enabling us to build models for ESA-listed species. Also Randy Clark (NOS/Biogeography Branch) has agreed to provide NCRMP monitoring data from St. Thomas, St. John, Puerto Rico, and the Florida Keys, enabling us to expand geographically and refine our models in project outyears. THE MODEL: Dr. Vardi published a population model for Acropora palmata in 2012. This model will form the framework for other species' models. Demographic data describing vital rates will be used to parameterize size-based matrix models and elasticity analyses will identify life-history stages critical to population growth. Developing models that can predict changes in population size, time to extinction, and simulate environmental and management scenarios, will provide ESA and local coral managers with the ability to plan and prioritize future management actions. Vardi T, DE Williams, SA Sandin. 2012. Population dynamics of the threatened elkhorn coral in the northern Florida Keys, USA. Endangered Species Research 19: 157-169. doi: 10.3354/esr00475.
Expected Outcome:
This project will provide ESA-mandated status and trends analysis for populations of coral species listed under the ESA and located in the USVI. In the absence of adequate time series or appropriate data types in other US jurisdictions, models will be developed for listed species in the USVI. After models have been developed and validated with USVI data being collected by Dr. Brandt, our modeling framework can be expanded to listed species in other US jurisdictions. Through demographic modeling we will identify the most important size-class(es) to population growth, and estimate risk of, and time to extinction (following Carson, Cook, Lopez and Levin 2011 and Vardi, Williams, and Sandin 2012). Simulation modeling and perturbation analyses of population models will provide predictions of future population size under realistic climate scenarios, such as increased hurricane intensity or bleaching frequency. These outcomes will provide local coral managers with the knowledge and ability to make science-based decisions regarding conservation priorities and management actions. Finally, building species-specific population models helps reveal knowledge gaps. If data-derived vital rate estimates are too variable to provide useful results, more focused scientific research questions can be identified, and appropriate monitoring can be developed to answer those questions. The information these models provide will improve the relationship with scientists and managers by providing a platform for testing management and climate change scenarios, and, ultimately, will help target management funds towards those activities that have the highest likelihood of improving coral reef health.Carson, HS, GS Cook, PC Lopez-Duarte and LA Levin. 2011. Evaluating the importance of demographic connectivity in a marine metapopulation. Ecology 92: 1972-1984.
Project Locations:
- Florida
- U.S. Virgin Islands
Project Category:
Other Domestic or Global Project
Project Status:
Funding Ended
Associated Products:
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