The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) experimental weekly Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook product at 0.5x0.5 degree spatial resolution is the newest version (5.0). It was made available on November 21, 2017 and released publicly on the CRW website on March 27, 2018. For this version, CRW's near real-time Version 3 daily global 5km satellite Coral Bleaching HotSpot replaced the daily Coral Bleaching HotSpot derived from the daily 0.25-degree OISST Version 2 analysis as the observational feed. This enhanced the continuity between CRW's satellite nowcast and modeled forecast of bleaching heat stress for the upcoming weeks and months, thereby improving CRW's capability for predicting the likelihood of coral bleaching at a subseasonal-to-seasonal-scale, up to four months into the future. The Outlook is based on the daily sea surface temperature (SST) forecast from the NOAA/National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). With the CFSv2's 16 forecast runs per day (nine 45-day forecast runs, three 90-day forecast runs, and four 9-month forecast runs), CRW constructs between 28 and 112 ensemble members at a weekly time scale to produce its probabilistic outlooks. 112 members are included for future Weeks 1-5, 49 members for Weeks 6-12, and 28 members for Weeks 13-36 with Week 1 being the first future week predicted. Currently on the Outlook product's web page, CRW displays the Outlook at probabilities of 90% and 60%, showing the heat stress level predicted by 90% and 60%, respectively, of the forecast ensemble members used. The probability of each specified heat stress range (Bleaching Watch and higher, Bleaching Warning and higher, Alert Level 1 and 2, and Alert Level 2) occurring across the globe over the next four months is also presented on the website. Each map displays the percentage of the ensemble members that predicted heat stress within the range specified. These images are available both as a four-month composite outlook and individual weekly outlooks within the four-month period. Outlook data in NetCDF4 format are also available via an FTP server linked from the Outlook web page. The Outlook is updated weekly, usually on early Tuesday afternoon (U.S. Eastern Time). In a normal year, the Outlook forecasts no potential for bleaching. When the forecasted SST exceeds bleaching thresholds over a long enough period to cause bleaching, the Outlook maps display the bleaching potential. Actual conditions may vary due to model uncertainty, subsequent changes in climatic conditions, extreme localized variability, or weather patterns. This effort is made possible through collaboration between NOAA's NCEP and CRW, with funding support from NOAA's NCEP, Climate Program Office, and Coral Reef Conservation Program.
The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) mission is to utilize remote sensing, modeled, and in-situ tools for near real-time and long term monitoring, modeling and reporting of physical environmental conditions of coral reef ecosystems. A suite of monitoring and prediction products, including this product, has been developed by CRW as a decision support system (DSS) to provide critical and timely coral reef environment information to the U.S. and international coral reef communities.
The entire suite of products mentioned in this metadata file is accessible at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/index.php.
Ground Condition
Not intended for legal use. Data contain prediction uncertainty.
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The accuracy of CRW's CFS-based Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook depends on the accuracy of the sea surface layer temperature prediction produced by NOAA/NCEP's operational Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the accuracy of CRW's algorithm for predicting the Coral Bleaching HotSpot and Degree Heating Week (DHW). More detailed descriptions of NCEP's CFSv2 and CRW's CFS-based Outlook product are provided in the following three articles, respectively: 1) Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Behringer, D., Hou, Y., Chuang, H., Iredell, M., Ek, M., Meng, J., Yang, R., Mendez, M.P., van den Dool, H., Zhang, Q., Wang, W., Chen, M., and Becker, E. (2014). The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J. Climate 27, 2185–2208, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1. 2) Eakin CM, Liu G, Chen M, Kumar A (2012) Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast System. Proc 12th Int Coral Reef Sym, ICRS2012_10A_1, http://www.icrs2012.com/proceedings/manuscripts/ICRS2012_10A_1.pdf. 3) Liu, G, Eakin CM, Chen M, Kumar A, De La Cour JL, Heron SF, Geiger EF, Skirving WJ, Tirak KV, Strong AE (2018) Predicting Heat Stress to Inform Reef Management: NOAA Coral Reef Watch's 4-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook. Front. Mar. Sci. 5:57. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2018.00057. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00057.
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There is no spatial data gap existing in this dataset. No change will be made to the original Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook data, but occasional revisions to some images may occur if an inaccuracy is detected in the data image display. New Outlook images will be produced continuously at scheduled weekly update times. As an experimental product, this Outlook will be evaluated continuously and improved versions may replace older versions over time with corresponding announcements.
Users are referred to the following article for horizontal positional accuracy: Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Behringer, D., Hou, Y., Chuang, H., Iredell, M., Ek, M., Meng, J., Yang, R., Mendez, M.P., van den Dool, H., Zhang, Q., Wang, W., Chen, M., and Becker, E. (2014). The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J. Climate 27, 2185–2208, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1.
CRW's current CFS-based global Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook product is derived from the sea surface layer temperature prediction of NOAA/NCEP's CFSv2.
In the most recent Outlook Version 5.0 (v5), CRW's near-real-time daily 5km satellite Coral Bleaching HotSpot Version 3 replaced the daily Coral Bleaching HotSpot derived from the daily 0.25-degree OISST Version 2 analysis as the observational feed. This enhanced the continuity between CRW's satellite nowcast and modeled forecast of bleaching heat stress for the upcoming weeks and months. In the Outlook v5, a seven-day period of linear transition from the last observed daily satellite HotSpot (used in the calculation) to the predicted HotSpots is carried out for each model run separately. This provides a smooth transition from the satellite observed "truth" to the modeled predictions. To be consistent with our satellite algorithm where the 7-day maximum Bleaching Alert Area composite is used to identify bleaching heat stress in near real-time, in the Outlook v5, for each model run, the weekly maximum is derived from the daily Bleaching Alert Area for each week, for each data grid, and is then used to generate weekly and four-month probabilistic predictions. In previous Outlook versions, the weekly Bleaching Alert Area median was employed. To the maximum extent possible, shifting from using the weekly median to the weekly maximum Bleaching Alert Area only introduces three additional days of stress accumulation for any given week. During the period of active stress accumulation, using the weekly maximum to represent a week's stress simply makes the higher stress appear one week earlier, as compared with using the weekly median because the maximum stress level of any week is the minimum level of the following week. If a week falls on the last week of a predicted four-month time period, the stress predicted by the Outlook v5 would appear higher than earlier product versions for the same four-month time period. However, this does not mean the Outlook v5 is overestimating the level of heat stress; rather that it is revealing the presence of stress in the week when it occurs. All other aspects of the forecast system remain intact. See the CRW website at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/index.php, as well as Liu et al. (2018) and Eakin et al. (2012) above for additional details.
These are the image displays of the original global Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook data.
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleachingoutlook_cfs/index.php
NOAA makes no warranty regarding these data, expressed or implied, nor does the fact of distribution constitute such a warranty. NOAA cannot assume liability for any damages caused by any errors or omissions in these data, nor as a result of the failure of these data to function on a particular system.
Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook web page
Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook images
Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook data in NetCDF4
The product in various formats may be downloaded from the CRW website or obtained directly from the distributor.
