Weatherdon, L., Rogers, A., Sumaila, R., Magnan, A., Cheung, W. W. L.

The Oceans 2015 Initiative. Part II: An updated understanding of the observed and projected impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine and coastal socioeconomic activities/sectors

2015

IDDRI Newsletter

3

46

"This report summarizes the key findings of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and brings in newer literature to assess the ecosystem services and ocean-related human activities (Part II). This report is one of the first two of several items being developed to provide input to the upcoming 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This report is part of the Oceans 2015 Initiative, which aims to develop an impact scenario of ocean acidification and warming for oceans and coasts at the global scale, from chemical and physical processes to impacts on marine and coastal organisms and ecosystems, as well as on related human activities. The overarching objective of the Oceans 2015 Initiative is to provide the UNFCCC process and key stakeholders, ahead of COP21, with the best possible information on what to expect from current and future changes in the ocean. This report specifically assesses the most relevant available science on the possible impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine and coastal human sectors (i.e., fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism and health). While several chapters of IPCC AR5 of Working Groups I and II already synthesise the available science, many scientific articles and grey literature have been published between July 2013 (cut-off date for IPCC reports) and now. This report thus aims to incorporate this knowledge. The goal here is not to be exhaustive, i.e. integrate all the papers that have been published recently, but rather to include the ones that really bring new insights (either strengthening or contradicting IPCCs conclusions). The main conclusions of this report are the following: There continues to be strong evidence that climate change will lead to a redistribution of benefits and losses at multiple scales, and across human and ecological systems. Empirical and theoretical evidence continues to support the occurrence of climate-induced range shifts of species and coastal marine ecosystems, which were reported with very high confidence in AR5. While AR5 indicated that coral reefs had little scope for adaptation, recent research has suggested that there may be some capacity for some coral species to recover from climatic shocks and bleaching events, and to acquire heat resistance through acclimatization. Studies have increasingly explored synergistic interactions between different climatic drivers, and have found strong variability between impacts to species at different life stages. Observed and projected climate-induced impacts suggest that sustainable freshwater aquaculture may be more viable than wild-caught fisheries under climate change. There has been increased effort to characterize and value ecosystem services in the context of climate change, with specific relevance to ecosystem-based adaptation."