Ruben van Hooidonk

2015

Purpose/Need To effectively manage coral reefs under stress from climate change, accurate projections of coral bleaching and ocean acidification are needed. Currently global climate models operate on large spatial scales, often with resolutions coarser than hundreds of kilometers. To project coral bleaching and ocean acidification impacts on spatial scales relevant to coral reefs we will use a modular ocean model that operates on a 0.1 x 0.1 degree resolution. Project ObjectivesFor two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, projections of future climate change impacts to Caribbean coral reef habitats will be made. These projections will be made available in a google earth tool as maps: 1) High resolution maps of yearly bleaching risk for the period 2005-2100 for the Caribbean.2) High resolution maps of yearly ocean acidification impacts for the period 2005-2100 for the Caribbean.The raw data on thermal stress and aragonite saturation state will be made available at monthly resolution in netCDF files.Leveraged projectsThis project continues and expands on a previously funded CRCP projects(ID 20692: 2011-2013 and project ID# 1121 2014). The previous project constructed a downscaled climate model for the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea using the CO2 emission scenario A1B, from the IPCC AR4 climate models. This research resulted in the first high resolution predictions of future thermal impacts on Caribbean corals. Work proposed here will expand on this work in a number of ways:1) It will update the downscaled model to run on the newer CO2 concentration scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are the new benchmarks for impact studies.2) It will use a new and improved regional model: MOM 4.13) It will include a biogeochemical component, which will allow the inclusion of a previously missing component to impact models: ocean acidification.In addition, this work will leverage a much larger NASA proposal (NNX11AP76G, $1.6 million), which is building climate change impact models for pelagic fish species in the western Atlantic. The NASA project covers portions of salary for Muhling, Lee and Liu, and thus contribute substantial leverage to the project proposed here. It will also leverage NOAA's Ocean Acidification Program monitoring efforts. In-situ and satellite products will be used to validate and assess the quality of the modeled geochemical data.This proposal will bring together expertise from NOAA Fisheries (Lamkin and Muhling), AOML PhoD (Lee and Liu) and AOML OCED (van Hooidonk) and provide a great opportunity to foster future collaborations.MethodsNOAA’s GFDL global climate model will be used to provide boundary conditions for the high resolution Modular Ocean Model. This model will provide projection of thermal stress in the Caribbean. The outputs of the modular ocean model will be used to model the biogeochemistry of the Caribbean region using the TOPAZ (Tracers in the Ocean with Allometric Zooplankton) model. From the modeled variables aragonite saturation state will be computed to project calcification rates. From modeled temperature bleaching projections will be made.

We will, for the first time, deliver projections of future climate change threats to coral reefs in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region on scales relevant to reefs. It will address two of the main potential threats: bleaching from warming waters, and reduced calcification due to ocean acidification. These projections are critical needs for effective management and planning, as they will highlight regions of reefs at risk and reefs that will experience the impacts of climate change later. This is critical knowledge in the design and management of marine protected areas. The projected climate change impacts will help managers optimize actions and plans to protect reefs.

• Gulf of Mexico
• Florida
• Puerto Rico
• U.S. Virgin Islands
• International Wider Caribbean

Climate Change

Closed

Completed

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