Chris Kelble

2018

This project will identify and quantify thresholds between ecosystem pressures and indicators that should be used to set management targets for the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Not only will identifying thresholds allow us to set indicator targets for use in FKNMS condition reports, it will also complete the next step in the Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) process for FKNMS. The Office of National Marine Sanctuaries has been working with NOAA's IEA program to advance the science behind Sanctuary condition reports and management plans. These efforts have shown how IEAs can effectively inform sanctuary processes and thus result in better management and ecosystem outcomes. However, most sanctuary IEA efforts have focused on the west coast sanctuaries and none have included sanctuaries with coral reef ecosystems. Thus, there is a need to apply the IEA process to the FKNMS to advance its mission and improve the protection and restoration of the coral reef ecosystems within FKNMS. There have been significant investments in advancing some aspects of the IEA process in FKNMS, but there is currently a need to identify indicator targets for the condition report. In the future, this information will allow us to complete a full IEA by conducting risk assessments and evaluating management scenarios to inform the condition reports and the next management plan process in the FKNMS. Fortunately, we can take advantage of the significant accomplishments the National Ocean Service has made in applying ecosystem science to inform management in the FKNMS. The Marine Biodiversity Observing Network (MBON) program has developed a data-backed conceptual model web-based tool that allows you to click on indicators to access and plot the underlying data for that indicator (https://marinebon.github.io/info-fk/corals.html). Additionally, NCCOS' biogeographic assessment has collected and archived all of the geospatial information about ecology and biodiversity, and the reef tract that were discoverable. This prior collection of quality assurance/quality controlled data for the Florida Keys will allow us to focus on filling data gaps on ecosystem pressures and applying the appropriate statistical analyses to this data to determine thresholds and set targets for indicators. We will apply multiple empirical approaches to determine if there are thresholds in any of the indicator responses to ecosystem pressures for which we have data (Samhourri et al., 2017). These approaches use general additive models and break-point analyses to identify non-linearities in the response of one variable to another. These thresholds are natural targets that we should aim to achieve in these indicators to maximize the return on management investment and ensure the ecosystem does not undergo a dramatic shift. Determining thresholds will help us to provide advice on where and how protective conservation measures should be implemented to minimize pressures and determine if the proposed reduction in pressures can cause a significant and potentially non-linear improvement in the ecosystem indicators. In addition to identifying thresholds we will also apply early warning analyses that aim to determine if a tipping point is being approached (Dakos et al. 2008, Carpenter et al. 2008, Carpenter et al. 2011). These approaches have shown they are capable of identifying tipping points and thresholds before they are broached in simulated datasets and lakes (Dakos et al. 2012, Wang et a. 2012), but have yet to be applied to marine ecosystems. This will provide information to managers to inform them of when an indicator might be about to cross a threshold and to help inform the risk assessment. In ensuing years, we intend to complete the IEA process for the Florida Keys. The immediate next step will be to conduct a risk assessment following the bow-tie risk assessment methodology. Bow-tie risk assessments are an industry standard that have recently begun to be adopted into ecosystem science (Cormier et al. 2013, Szetenmuller et al. 2018). The bow-tie method identifies ecosystem locations and components under the greatest risk due to individual and cumulative pressures. It also develops proposed mitigation and restoration actions to reduce the risk of a negative event occurring and minimize its impact should it occur. After conducting the risk assessment, we will evaluate potential management scenarios that are co-developed with stakeholders and FKNMS staff.

We will develop a suite of indicators that are measured or at least measurable to directly address the questions in the FKNMS conditions report. This suite of indicators will be used to identify tipping points that establish thresholds that the FKNMS should not breach to ensure its sustainability. The transfer to management will be taken by co-developing the project methodology and reporting structure. There is a meeting scheduled for May 18th to initiate the collaboration between the project team and the FKNMS staff to make sure the project results are useful to FKNMS and delivered in the best manner to maximize their impact on management and stewardship of FKNMS coral reefs.

• Florida

• Southeast Florida Coral Reef Initiative

Fishing

Closed

Completed

https://www.coris.noaa.gov/search/rest/find/document?searchText=projectNumber%3A31203%20OR%20projectTitle%3A"Florida%20Keys%20National%20Marine%20Sanctuary%20Integrated%20Ecosystem%20Assessment%20%28FK-IEA%29"&start=1&max=10&f=searchPage