Eakin, C. M., Rauenzahn, J. L., Liu, G., Heron, S. F., Skirving, W. J., Geiger, E. F., Burgess, T. F. R., Strong, A. E.

Will 2014-2015 be the next big El Nino? If so, what might it mean for coral reefs?

2014

NOAA Coral Reef Watch; Global Science and Technology, Inc.

Reef Encounter 40

29

2

30-35

"As of June 2014, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has issued an El Nino Watch. There is a greater than 70% chance that an El Nino will develop by late 2014. The present consensus forecast calls for a weak-to-moderate event. Additionally, you can see areas likely to bleach up to four months in advance using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's current Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook webpage. Currently, the highest bleaching likelihood can be seen in Guam and the Marianas Islands, the equatorial Pacific around Kiribati, and the eastern tropical Pacific (as shown in Figure 2.) The chart (Figure 1) shows the probability of an El Nino (and La Nina) developing through early 2015 (as of mid-July 2014) from http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/. The three lines represent the climatological (i.e., normally expected) likelihood of El Nino, La Nina, or neutral conditions during each month of the year. The bars indicate the likelihood of these three conditions during 2014-2015 based on an analysis of various climate models."

National Coral Reef Monitoring Plan (NCRMP); climatic monitoring

FY2014 CRCP Project ID 915; Project Title: Coral Reef Watch - Satellite Products for Coral Reef Managers; Principal Investigator: Mark Eakin ~ FY2014 CRCP Project ID 743; Project Title: National Coral Reef Monitoring Plan (NCRMP) Implementation (Climatic Monitoring); Principal Investigator: Jessica Morgan