Projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models via dynamical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. From the downscaled Sea Surface Temperature (SST) projections, an ensemble was created by replacing the mean of the 2006-2011 modeled temperature with the mean of the Pathfinder v5.0 climatology. An ensemble was made by removing the quadratic trend and annual cycle of the mean-corrected MOM4.1 all remaining monthly anomalies were randomized 33 times and the annual cycle was added back. Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) are calculated. Full methods are described in the peer reviewed article: van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A., Liu, Y., & Lee, S.-K. (2015). Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning. Global Change Biology, 1–13. http://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12901
These downscaled products were made to project the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions. These data can inform local management actions.
The data was modeled over a period 2012-2014.
Not intended for legal use. Data may contain inaccuracies.
NOAA, AOML, 4301 Rickenbacker causeway
Detailed comparison and evaluation has been published in peer reviewed journals. Caution should be used near coasts and shallow areas.
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There is no spatial data gap existing in this data set.
The regional ocean model MOM4.1 (NOAA GFDL) was used to model future SST at 11km resolution.
SST were modeled using the fully eddy-resolving MOM4.1 model. It has a horizontal resolution of 0.1° over the region of interest, decreasing linearly to 0.25° in the rest of the model domain. The MOM4 has 25 vertical z-coordinate levels. Here only the area bounded by 5°N to 30°N -100°E and -40°E was used.
Surface temperature of sea water
AOML
Degree Heating Weeks
NOAA makes no warranty regarding these data and images, expressed or implied, nor does the fact of distribution constitute such a warranty. NOAA cannot assume liability for any damages caused by any errors or omissions in these images, nor as a result of the failure of these data to function on a particular system.
