Eakin, C. M., Donner, S. D., Logan, C. A., Gledhill, D. K., Liu, G., Heron, S. F., Christensen, T., DeLaCour, J. L., Morgan, J. A., Parker, B. A., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Skirving, W. J.

Thresholds for coral bleaching: Are synergistic factors and shifting thresholds changing the landscape for management?

2010

NOAA Coral Reef Watch; University of British Columbia; NOAA GFDL; NOAA AOML; University of Queensland

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

1

Abstract B32A-04

4-4

"Invited paper at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, December 13-17, 2010. As carbon dioxide rises in the atmosphere, climate change and ocean acidification are modifying important physical and chemical parameters in the oceans with resulting impacts on coral reef ecosystems. Rising CO2 is warming the world's oceans and causing corals to bleach, with both alarming frequency and severity. The frequent return of stressful temperatures has already resulted in major damage to many of the world's coral reefs and is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. Warmer oceans also have contributed to a rise in coral infectious diseases. Both bleaching and infectious disease can result in coral mortality and threaten one of the most diverse ecosystems on Earth and the important ecosystem services they provide. Additionally, ocean acidification from rising CO2 is reducing the availability of carbonate ions needed by corals to build their skeletons and perhaps depressing the threshold for bleaching. While thresholds vary among species and locations, it is clear that corals around the world are already experiencing anomalous temperatures that are too high, too often, and that warming is exceeding the rate at which corals can adapt. This is despite a complex adaptive capacity that involves both the coral host and the zooxanthellae, including changes in the relative abundance of the latter in their coral hosts. The safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 is probably somewhere below 350ppm, a level we passed decades ago, and for temperature is a sustained global temperature increase of less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. How much can corals acclimate and/or adapt to the unprecedented fast changing environmental conditions? Any change in the threshold for coral bleaching as the result of acclimation and/or adaption may help corals to survive in the future but adaptation to one stress may be maladaptive to another. There also is evidence that ocean acidification and nutrient enrichment modify this threshold. What do shifting thresholds mean for identifying limits and taking management actions to adapt to climate change?"

ecosystems, structure and dynamics; marine systems; coral reef systems; ecosystems, structure, dynamics, and modeling